Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The typical count of daily homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new government figures. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder data could fail to point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen during these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the least amount of homicides were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday killings was also concerning because it might obscure days when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the country to voice their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.