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At first, the former US president appeared to embrace a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer if Russia's president carried on blocking peace discussions, Trump finally introduced major restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially impacted Putin's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his newly presented detailed peace plan for the conflict, that was created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has apparently reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's plan would in practice reward Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, the former president continues to consider the war as a basic border issue, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the leader. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Surrenders

Although freezing in status the already split regions of these areas, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Putin a clear route to the capital should he subsequently opt to renew the war.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, the initiative places no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, the plan asserts: "All Nazi ideology and practices must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". However given that Putin has broken similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of captured areas in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we trust Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "immediate unified military response" in case Russia resume its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

Another parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's primary defense against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not